Your second-order year: what January builds, June inherits

We thrive on the January vibes as much as anyone else – especially with this year’s LEAP just around the corner now. It feels good to reconnect with ambition and focus on goals with the sense of positivity and possibility that a new year brings. 

But just as you go hard on January decision-making, it’s worth remembering that the outcomes that matter most this year will happen without so much noise, months down the line – as second-order effects of decisions you make now. 

Real momentum creates impact later on 

First-order thinking asks: what happens when we do this? 

Second-order thinking asks: what happens after that – and then after that? 

And in 2026, this distinction is more important than at any point in the last decade. 

Much of today’s technology (especially AI, core platforms, and security infrastructure) restructures how decisions are made, where judgement sits, and what becomes difficult to undo.

Deloitte’s Tech Trends 2026 shows that many organisations have moved beyond pilots and proofs of concept and are now under pressure to demonstrate measurable operational and financial impact from technology investments.

Once technology becomes foundational rather than experimental, its consequences compound – whether teams intended them to or not.

Second-order effect #1: AI increases speed – and shifts judgement upstream

Across recent industry research, one pattern is consistent: AI is no longer confined to experiments at the edges of organisations.

One CIO survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets found that around 60% of enterprises already have AI systems in production, and nearly 90% plan to increase AI spending in 2026.

The first-order effect here is obvious: faster execution, automated decisions, reduced friction.

The second-order effect is more subtle, but it’ll be more important long-term. As systems make more decisions automatically, human judgement moves earlier in the chain – into data selection, model design, governance rules, and escalation thresholds. When those are poorly designed in January, teams often discover the cost months later.

Second-order effect #2: Platform choices harden faster than strategy

Another defining feature of 2026 planning is the move toward deeper, more integrated platforms.

Gartner’s overview of the top strategic tech trends for 2026 emphasises technologies that reshape operating models, not just individual products. The list includes trends like AI-native development platforms, multiagent systems, AI security platforms, digital provenance, and pre-emptive cybersecurity.

Gartner positions these as tools for CIOs and technology leaders to build resilient foundations and protect enterprise value – suggesting that organisations are investing in systems with long lifespans.

The first-order benefit is clarity: fewer tools, tighter integration, cleaner pipelines.

The second-order effect is commitment. Platforms guide behaviour long after strategies change. Teams optimise for what the platform makes easy, and avoid what the platform makes hard. Over time, this means your options narrow. So your architecture decision in January could define the constraints you face in December. 

Second-order effect #3: Efficiency drives can starve experimentation without meaning to

After several years of recalibration, many organisations are prioritising efficiency: consolidating tools, tightening budgets, demanding clearer returns.

That instinct is rational, but it does carry risk. 

When efficiency becomes the dominant metric too early, experimentation migrates to hidden corners of the business. Innovation becomes informal, ungoverned, and unevenly distributed across teams. Months later, you wonder why progress feels incremental despite heavy investment.

Second-order thinking doesn’t reject efficiency. It asks where slack still exists – and whether it’s intentional. Because a little room for exploration is necessary. 

How can you plan differently in Q1 - with second-order effects in mind? 

Instead of trying to predict the future, the most effective teams design for it. 

In second-order aware companies, three behaviours show up repeatedly:

1. They distinguish speed from permanence
   Not every January decision needs to be reversible – but teams are explicit about which ones are.
2. They govern outcomes (not just tools)
   Especially with AI, governance focuses on accountability, escalation, and review – not only usage rules.
3. They stress-test success (not just failure)
   They ask: If this works extremely well, what breaks next?

These approaches create resilience. So before you lock in your priorities, ask: 

• What behaviour does this decision encourage six months from now?
• Where does human judgement move once this is automated?
• Which future options does this choice make harder to pursue?
• What would we need to unlearn if this scales faster than expected?

Watch the ripples, not the splash 

January decisions are like stones dropping into water. You can see the splash straight away, but it’s the ripples (slower, wider, unstoppable) that really shape the year. 

January rewards decisiveness. But 2026 will reward disciplined foresight.

True momentum comes from whether early decisions create room to adapt, or accidentally lock your organisation into a rigid path.

Drop a stone now, and it’ll ripple for months (maybe years). So now is a really good time to get your pass for LEAP 2026 – where you’ll meet peers with the knowledge to help you shape systems for the future.